The geopolitical risk factors that affect the supply chain of the semiconductor industry in Thailand

Abstract

              The semiconductor industry is one of the key industries driving global technological development and the economies of many countries, including Thailand, which plays a role as a minor producer in the supply chain. However, rising geopolitical risks are currently impacting the stability and growth of this industry significantly. Key factors include the conflict between the United States and China, which affects trade and investment in advanced technologies. This tension has also led to export controls and sanctions that could disrupt semiconductor supply in the Asia-Pacific region. This study utilizes document analysis and qualitative data from international reports and relevant organizations to assess the impact of geopolitical risks on Thailand's semiconductor industry. The findings reveal that conflicts between major powers affect trade and investment in advanced technologies. Simultaneously, reliance on major semiconductor-producing countries such as Taiwan and South Korea increases the risk of supply chain disruptions. Thailand also faces risks from shifting global investment trends, as foreign companies begin to relocate their production bases to other countries, such as Vietnam or India. Additionally, international regulations, such as environmental requirements and export restrictions, may pose further obstacles to industrial development. This study proposes proactive policy approaches, such as reducing dependency on unstable raw material sources, promoting investment in strategically significant technologies, and supporting research and development (R&D) to enhance the stability of the supply chain. Furthermore, the findings provide new insights into specific risks affecting Thailand, such as cyberattacks on the supply chain and increasing regional competition. These findings can be leveraged to develop resilient supply chain strategies and build cybersecurity systems to enhance Thailand’s competitiveness in the long term. To address these risks, Thailand must develop policies aligned with global trends and design strategies that enable adaptability. Despite risks emerging across multiple dimensions, with effective management, the country can turn challenges into opportunities for sustainably advancing the semiconductor industry.